Over the past few months, I’ve noticed an interesting trend since starting a small “fun money” experiment, investing $100 a week into Bitcoin. Every time Bitcoin dipped sharply, gold seemed to do the same. And whenever I saw headlines about gold prices climbing, Bitcoin prices were right there with it. It made me wonder: are gold and Bitcoin actually correlating assets? And if so, why? More importantly, is there a lesson here for investors who hold one, or both, in their portfolios?

The Hard Data

To answer that, we can look at three different time horizons: long term, medium term, and short term.

The Long Term

A 2021 study found that from 2011 to 2021, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin was low to near zero. In simple terms, their returns didn’t move together in any significant way. Another source calculated the correlation coefficient between 2014 and today at roughly 0.09, again, very low compared with a perfect correlation of 1.

However, this long-term data has limits. Gold has existed as a store of value for thousands of years. Bitcoin, by contrast, was launched in 2009 and only gained widespread adoption years later. That makes historical comparisons tricky.

I find the shorter-term data more revealing.

The Medium Term

Looking at midrange timeframes, such as spring 2025 data, the picture changes. A 90-day correlation sits around +0.39, while a 365-day correlation runs closer to +0.60–0.65.

That’s a moderate relationship, suggesting that over several months or a year, Bitcoin and gold often move in the same direction, even if not perfectly.

But does this trend hold over shorter windows?

The Short Term

Short-term data tells an even more fascinating story. Over certain 30-day periods, the Pearson correlation coefficient between gold and Bitcoin has reached as high as 0.82, a strong correlation.

Then, just 30 days later, following the November 5 U.S. presidential election, that same measure flipped to -0.66, indicating an inverse relationship.

That’s quite the swing. So what’s going on here?

Why Would Gold and Bitcoin Be Correlating?

Bitcoin is often called “digital gold,” a supposed modern hedge against the fiat monetary system.

Here’s the idea: the U.S. dollar is no longer backed by gold. Its value rests on collective trust in the government and economy. If that trust wavers – say, during inflation, political turmoil, or financial crises AKA the deep risks of investing – investors often flee toward assets perceived as independent of fiat currency.

Historically, gold has served that role. It’s rare, tangible, and universally valued.

Bitcoin proponents argue it shares similar characteristics. It’s decentralized, not issued by any government, and its total supply is capped. It also carries potential utility through blockchain technology, which provides secure and transparent proof of ownership and transactions.

So, when faith in the fiat system dips, both gold and Bitcoin can attract investors as alternative stores of value. That’s exactly what we’ve seen recently. Both assets rose during fears about subprime lending and bad loans, then fell when those concerns quickly faded.

Why Aren't Bitcoin and Gold Always Correlating Then?

In theory, if both assets serve as fiat hedges, you’d expect them to move together consistently. Yet they don’t.

The medium-term data suggests investors often treat Bitcoin as a hedge, but not always. Its correlation fluctuates because Bitcoin also behaves like a speculative risk asset. It reacts strongly to shifts in sentiment, regulation, and market momentum.

Gold, on the other hand, is a known quantity. It doesn’t promise big returns, and its purpose as a safe haven is well established. It doesn’t respond to hype in the same way.

This difference explains why gold’s stability contrasts with Bitcoin’s volatility, and why their relationship sometimes aligns and other times completely diverges.

Key Takeaways

Here’s what all of this means for investors:

• Gold remains a pure hedge against fiat currency.
• Bitcoin plays a dual role: it’s part hedge, part speculative asset.
• Correlations increase during periods of uncertainty or declining confidence in fiat systems.
• Correlations fall off when markets stabilize or Bitcoin-specific events dominate headlines.
• Policy or political shifts, such as new regulations or election outcomes, can move Bitcoin independently and even inversely to gold.

What It Means for Your Portfolio

Gold and Bitcoin aren’t fully correlated. Holding both isn’t the same as doubling down on one. Still, that doesn’t automatically mean either deserves a place in your portfolio.

Personally, I don’t hold gold. But if you’re deeply concerned about fiat instability or simply want a traditional hedge, gold is a reasonable choice.

As for Bitcoin, I treat it as a speculative play. My $100-a-week experiment is exactly that, an experiment. It’s “fun money,” not a foundational investment. Many investors disagree, and that’s fine. But I don’t believe crypto should form the core of any physician’s portfolio or retirement plan. Index funds should be.

One Last Interesting Note

Bitcoin actually correlates fairly strongly with the S&P 500, with a historical coefficient of about 0.7. That’s ironic given how differently the two assets are marketed.

In the end, both reflect broader economic sentiment. Maybe Bitcoin is becoming too mainstream for its own good. But that’s a conversation for another day.

Final Thoughts

Gold and Bitcoin share some traits but live in very different worlds. Gold is the old guard of financial security; Bitcoin is still an ambitious newcomer still trying to prove itself as it maintains a large speculative component.

In some seasons, they’ll rise and fall together. In others, they’ll part ways entirely. The key for investors is recognizing why. And ensuring that whatever role these assets play in your portfolio fits your goals, not the headlines.

In the meantime, here are some additional resources on the topic of technical investing in various assets:

• Understanding the Stock Market: Firm Foundation vs. Castle in the Air Theories
• Tulipmania and Modern Investing: Are We Repeating The Same Mistakes?
• Bonds Asset Allocation: What Should Yours Be?
• A Real Estate Investing Guide for Physicians

What do you think? Are Bitcoin and gold correlating assets? What makes you say that? Is Bitcoin more than a hedge? What about gold? Do you own any? Let me know in the comments below!